“Understand that things are now in
motion that cannot be undone.”
-Galdalf the Grey (The Fellowship of
the Ring, J.R.R. Tolkien)
In these posts over the past few
months I have tried to paint a clear picture of the general
predicaments we collectively face at this time in history. We have
the debt-ridden, fiasco of a fiat monetary system backed by an
economic model that requires ever increasing economic growth on a
finite planet. We have the hard constraint of energy depletion
looming in the not too distant future and an industrial system that
demands plentiful, cheap oil.
If Finance comes in first in our
little horse race, if all the shenanigans of the central banks,
governments, and Wall Street Banksters come back to bite us, it could
trigger a depression that makes the thirties look like a cakewalk.
If we are able to prop the system up long enough, and Peak Oil takes
the prize, not only could that trigger the Longest Depression, but it
will destabilize the institutions and infrastructure we depend on for
daily life.
This brings us right smack dab to face
the third contender in the Trifecta to do in industrial civilization:
Anthropogenic Climate Change. If our monetary hijinks are the
shadow in the closet , and energy decline is the monster under the
bed, then global warming is the dragon in the forest, capable of
razing the realm with its infernal breath.
Let us put it another way. Financial
collapse is a black horse. Her rider demands a day's pay for a quart
of wheat, a day's pay for three quarts of barley, but damn sure don't
spoil the olive oil and the wine! Peak Oil is blood red and its
rider wields a great sword. Remember the Carter Doctrine, when the
oil begins to run short, you think the nations won't take peace from
the earth? But Anthropogenic Climate Change is a pale horse: “And
his name who sits upon him is Death, and Hell followed with him.”
Is that a bit hyperbolic? You be the
judge.
I like to look at this issue through
two lenses, logos and myths, sort of a left brain, right brain
thought excersize. There are often considered to be two paths to
gnosis (knowledge), that of logos (reason, logic, observation) and
mythos (storytelling, prophecy, poetry). In my opinion, both are
necessary for a complete view.
First we will examine this through the
lens of reason. Let's review What we know so far and while we're at
it, let's dispense with the fucking nonsense, shall we? We have
known about the greenhouse effect since 1824 when Fourier discovered
greenhouse gases such as CO2. This is not new and ambiguous
information. In 1958 Charles David Keeling began taking measurements
of atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa observatory and we have known for five decades that the concentration of CO2 has been relentlessly increasing.
Physics, chemistry, geology, and
simple arithmetic eliminate natural processes as the source of the
carbon. Only the burning of fossil fuels can account for the fact,
and it is an irrefutable fact that atmospheric CO2 has increased from
250 parts per million (PPM) at the dawn of the industrial revolution
to over 390 PPM in 2012.
The higher the concentration of CO2,
the less solar heat is radiated back out space, and the global
average temperature is forced higher.
“Wait!”, the skeptics say. We
weren't measuring CO2 in 1850 (the beginning of the industrial
revolution). More fucking nonsense, we can drill ice cores. Much
like tree rings, they give scientists a very accurate window into
climate history. The tiny air bubbles trapped in each layer of ice,
contain samples of that year's atmosphere. Count back 162 layers,
send the slice to the lab, and bingo! We know it was 250 PPM in
1850.
“But solar radiation and the earth's
orbit can affect the climate!”, they cry. Again, physics and math
tell us that the slow increase over eons in the sun's energy output
is not enough to account for the rapid increase in temperature,
almost 1C since baseline (1850). And we are in the “long” phase
of our orbit, which is a negative (cooling) forcing. Keep in mind
that these forcings are tiny and have their impact on a geologic deep
timescale. Only the profligate burning of fossil fuels can account
for what we have seen and what we are seeing.
And if you believe that this is all a
hoax by a cabal of academics and scientists bent on increasing their
grant money, well I've got a job lined out for you at Bell
Helicopters building black helicopters for the U.N.
Speaking of geologic timescales, CO2
can and does sometimes increase due to natural phenomena. A good
example would be the Siberian Traps an episode of massive volcanic
activity thought to have caused a 6C temperature increase and the
mass extinction event referred to as the Great Dying. Another
example would be the PETM (paleocene-eocene thermal maximum) thought
to be the result of a release of methane hydrates from the sea floor.
Methane is one hundred times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2
over the short term and about 20 times more potent over the long term
as it degrades to CO2. Both these events happened over many thousands
of years, but we have already seen nearly a 1C increase in 162 years.
This is at least an order of magnitude faster than previous warming
episodes. Not only should that give you pause, it should drive home
the point that only the burning of fossil fuels can account for this.
Period!
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change), and various organizations have been sounding the
alarm bell repeatedly that we must avoid 2C warming by 2100, in order
to stave off risks to civilization. If I have one criticism of the
IPCC it is that they have consistently underestimated the impact and
the danger. Since the IPCC's report in 2007 (1C warming by 2100) the
data and models have been improving and a relentless drumbeat of dire
climate assessments have been piling up. Each is worst than the
last. Just this year the World Bank forecast 4C by the middle of the
century, and they are hardly a left-wing, liberal, environmental
organization. The Global Carbon Project and the International Energy
Agency forecasts business as usual pushing us to over 6C by 2100. At
6C the oceans are so acidic that they no longer support
phytoplankton, the source of half the earth's oxygen. As Lierre
Keith puts it: “if the oceans go down, we're going down with them.”
Another problem I have with the IPCC
and other climate groups is the focus on the year 2100. As if we
really have 87 years before we have to get worried. It is not about
your grandchildren, it is not about your children, it is about you.
Here are a few things we have observed in the past few years. You
can light the ground on fire in Siberia because melting permafrost is
releasing methane, there was a large oyster die off as the baby
oysters could not survive in the acidic environment, the Arctic ocean
is releasing methane from melting hydrates (remember the PETM), the
Arctic ice cap is melting and the North American pine forest is
dying, because of drought and an infestation of mountain pine
beetles. Each of these (and other phenomena) are self reinforcing
(positive) feedback loops.
Lets take the pine beetles for
example. It no longer gets cold enough, for long enough, in the high
country to kill off the pine beetles. The forests are stressed due to
ongoing drought and the beetles deliver the coup de grace. Warmer
winters ensure more beetles are able to overwinter and survive,
killing more trees, which sequester less carbon, which makes the
winters warmer, which lets more beetles survive, and so on. Or
Arctic ice, less summer ice reduces the albedo (reflectivity) of the
Arctic, which means more solar radiation (heat) is retained by the
dark ocean water, which melts more ice, which reduces the albedo, and
so on. It ain't that complicated, can you dig it?
For crying out loud, we have seen
thousands die in the 2003 European heat wave in France, the heat wave
in Russia in 2010 was so severe it killed 40% of the Russian wheat
crop and sparked massive forest fires (along with 50,000 deaths from
smoke inhalation and heat stroke) and the resultant spiking food
prices in 2011 triggered the Arab Spring. Superstorm Sandy (yet
another “storm of the century”) devastated the Northeast and
Occupy ended up feeding FEMA. The 2012 drought sent grain and meat
and dairy prices through the roof and it still hasn't broken. The
mighty Mississippi, the unstoppable Old Man River dropped to 9 ft at
St. Louis and barge traffic was almost suspended. Climate change is
upon us, all around us, right here, right now.
How many warnings do we need?
And this takes us to the lens of
mythos. There are many cultural traditions that provide an insight
into mankind's troubles. Hinduism, Buddhism, indigenous philosophy,
Wicca, Islam all these and more provide insights. But as I was
raised in the mainstream Protestant tradition, I am not really
qualified to speak from their point of view.
This brings us to the role of the
prophet. What is a prophet? The word immediately conjures up an
image of a crazy man, dressed in skins or rags, bearing a sign which
boldly proclaims “Repent! The End is Nigh!” Or perhaps a shaman
or mystic, peering into the ether through their tarot cards, scrying
the futures of the high and mighty. Neither tells the whole story.
The prophet, quite simply, is one who speaks for God. A person who
calls humanity to task for their base and cruel actions and
challenges them to change their lifestyle. Not only does this
include figures such as Amos, Micah, Elijah and so on, it includes
Dr. Martin Luther King and Gandhi and Mother Jones. It includes
Martin Luther, himself. All these people were acting as prophets,
speaking the words of truth to power, great and small.
In biblical tradition, a prophetic
warning often follows two basic patterns: “if – then” and
“because – therefore”. If you repent, then you shall be
forgiven or because you have sinned, your immortal soul is at risk
are two simple examples.
The story of Joseph and the Coat of
Many Colors provides a fine example of the first type of warning.
Joseph was the youngest and most favored son of Jacob.. Doted upon
by his parents, he was showered with blessings and gifts, the
polychromatic robe being the most famous. His brothers, in a rage
driven by envy, trick his parents into believing he was killed, and
sell the hapless Joseph into slavery in Egypt. Our poor hero
eventually finds himself imprisoned in the dungeons of Pharaoh,
where his true gifts reach their full potential, the interpretation
of dreams.
Pharaoh is awoken in the middle of the
night by a disturbing dream. Seven fat, luxurious cows are feeding
in the reeds of the Nile and seven sickly wasted cows come upon them
and devour them. Pharaoh is disturbed, but finally manages to fall
asleep once again, and promptly descends back into the domain of the
nightmare. Seven full stalks of corn (wheat, barley, etc.) are
growing when seven stalks of grain, blighted and bare, sprout up
after them and they consume the lush crops. Pharaoh awakes again.
Later in the day, he confesses his dreams and calls for the magicians
and wise men to explain it to him, but they are all mystified. His
cup bearer, having seen proof of Joseph’s power, tells Pharaoh to
call for Joseph, still languishing in the dungeon, and have his
dreams interpreted.
Joseph tells Pharaoh that his dreams
are one and the same. The seven cows and seven stalks of grain are
seven years of plenty and the seven sick cows and seven blighted
stalks are seven years of famine. The fact that the sick cows and
blighted stalks devour the other indicate that the famine will be so
severe that the good times will be forgotten in the pangs of want and
since the dream was doubled the thing is fixed by God and is
imminent.
Joseph then tells Pharaoh to appoint
someone to oversee the harvest and save back 20% of the harvest for
seven years against the years of famine. The message is clear and
simple. If you heed God's warning and take careful, prudent action
now, when times are good, then your people shall be saved when the
bad times descend. The entire story of Joseph's journey can be found
in Genesis chapters 37-50 and the episode of Pharaoh’s dreams are
spelled out in chapters 40-41. We would do well to reflect on the
message, if we listen to the warnings, sacrifice and take thoughtful
prudent action now (while we are able), then when the hard times
come, we will make it through.
At the other end of the spectrum of
prophetic warning, we find” because – therefore”. The Book of
Jeremiah is the quintessential example of this sort of warning. I
think a thoughtful person, regardless of their personal spiritual
beliefs (or lack of them) would be well advised to read Jeremiah and
ask, what does this mean for us, in this time, right now? Jeremiah
may be a prophet who can speak to this age just as powerfully as he
spoke to the Hebrews of the Exile.
“The word of the Lord came to me a
second time, saying, 'What do you see?' And I said, 'I see a boiling
pot, tilted away from the north.' Then the Lord said to me: Out of
the north disaster shall break on all the inhabitants of the land.
For now I am calling all the tribes of the kingdoms of the north,
says the Lord; and they shall come and all of them shall set their
thrones against all the cities of Judah. And I will utter my
judgments against them for all their wickedness in forsaking me; they
have made offerings to other gods, and worshiped the works of their
own hands.” -Jer. 1:11-16
“Like a cage full of birds, their
houses are full of treachery; therefore they have become great and
rich. They have grown fat and sleek. They know no limits in deeds
of wickedness; they do not judge with justice the cause of the
orphan, to make it prosper, and they do not defend the rights of the
needy. Shall I not punish them for these things? says the Lord and
shall I not bring retribution on a nation such as this?” -Jer.
5:27-29
Remind you of anyone much?
In a nutshell, Jeremiah says that
because they have engaged in idolatry, glorified their own
technological wizardry, and betrayed their sacred obligation to their
neighbors, they shall be chastised and their nation destroyed.
So, again I ask, how many more
warnings do we need? Ever since Rachel Carson wrote “Silent
Spring” in 1962, there have been a series of environmental prophets
who have told us that an unrestrained industrial economy was not
compatible with a living planet or civilization. Paul Erlich, Lester
Brown, The Club of Rome (Limits to Growth), Bill McKibben, James
Hansen, Paul Gilding, and yes even the much-maligned Al Gore, to name
a few, have all told us that our industrial lifestyle is
unsustainable and is damaging they very thing we depend on for life
itself, the biosphere. They have not advocated going back to a
medieval, peasant economy. They just said we must slow down,
transition, bend the curves. If we get off fossil fuels, then
civilization will continue. But in recent years the warnings have
taken on a more strident tone, as no substantial action whatsoever
has been forthcoming. You can almost see the panic in the eyes of
the climatologists.
Recently, two more major figures have
broken with the majority message of “if-then” and shifted to
“because-therefore”. Guy McPherson, a conservation biologist and
Professor Emeritus at the University of Arizona believes that we may
have crossed the event horizon. The climate crisis is now
accelerating due to positive feedbacks. The governments and and
populations of the world are paralyzed by economic lock-in and
cognitive dissonance (they literally cannot imagine living in a
different society). Runaway greenhouse and near term human
extinction, is in his view, a distinct possibility This is the
worst-case scenario described in fictionalized form by James Hansen
at the end of his book “Storms of my Grandchildren”. One of Dr.
McPherson's presentations can be found here.
Kevin Anderson, of the Tyndale Center
in the UK, skewers the grand plans of the mainstream climate
negotiators and scientists in his presentation “Real Clothes for
the Emperor”. It can be found here. He points out that all the
major programs designed to avoid 2C warming are predicated on CO2
emissions peaking in 2015, two years hence, and then declining at
approximately 3.5% per year, year on year. Yet when compared with
the actual data on emissions, and constrained by the demands of
neo-classical economists for continued economic growth, a startling
picture emerges. We have already blown the carbon budget for staying
under the ceiling of 2C. In other words, we cannot maintain our
economy and avoid 2C. In fact, we will be hard pressed to stay under
4C. And the consequences of 4C mean the end of civilization. The
real sting of his presentation is the phrase that a 4C world “may
not be stable”. Translation: runaway greenhouse and mass
extinction.
Both men are saying, because society
failed to act early and failed to imagine a different economy (as
opposed to consumerist suburbia in perpetuity), a gentle transition,
putting on sweaters and installing solar water heaters, letting the
“markets” work, well that possibility has been foreclosed upon.
Keep in mind, we have done nothing
consequential on the climate front. Japan, one of the most
efficient, cohesive, and socially progressive countries on earth
missed its emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. If they
can't do it, who can? The U.S., killed Kyoto by Senate Filibuster,
Dubbya declared that the American lifestyle was non-negotiable, and
Obama threw the Copenhagen Accords under the bus, deciding that
health reform and the economy were more important. He did raise the
auto emission standards to placate the environmentalists leading up
to the 2012 election, but this is like a clown tossing candy to a
child on the parade route. It is as if we are leaning out of the
airplane, pissing on a forest fire.
Does anyone, anywhere realistically
think carbon emissions will peak in 2015? And as Mr. Anderson
points out, the longer the emissions peak is delayed, the steeper the
fall must be in order to avoid 2C. The last country that was able to
reduce CO2 by 5% a year was the USSR when that nation disintegrated
and their economy collapsed.
And if we continue on our current
trajectory, and more extreme weather becomes the norm, how shall we
eat? Agriculture is predicated on the predictable weather patterns
of the Holocene, not the crapshoot of the Anthropocene.
'Tis quite a quandary we've created
for ourselves, isn't it. We squandered the one thing we couldn't
afford to lose, time. Normally, an essay of this sort, would offer a
series of possible solutions, of actions we could take to “fix”
the problem. But I believe we may have left the era of choice and
entered the era of consequence. If we are very, very lucky, it will
be a choice of consequences. Behind door number one: the end of the
globalized industrial economy and perhaps the continuation of human
beings and a living planet on which to reside. Behind door number
two: continuing our delusion for a time yet, and then the Sixth Mass
Extinction.
So, the obvious question, is what are
we to do? Honestly, I don't know. But there are some paths
forward. One path: Resistance. The good news is that the
Fellowship is recruiting. More on that next time.
