The temperature gauge is climbing, the oil light is flashing, the fuel is approaching "E". She is shimmying and stuttering and our credit card is maxed. Do we pull over and walk? No! We step on the gas. This car is our civilization and it's running on seven cylinders.

Monday, February 4, 2013

Driving a Pale Horse

     “Understand that things are now in motion that cannot be undone.”
           -Galdalf the Grey (The Fellowship of the Ring, J.R.R. Tolkien)


     In these posts over the past few months I have tried to paint a clear picture of the general predicaments we collectively face at this time in history. We have the debt-ridden, fiasco of a fiat monetary system backed by an economic model that requires ever increasing economic growth on a finite planet. We have the hard constraint of energy depletion looming in the not too distant future and an industrial system that demands plentiful, cheap oil.

      If Finance comes in first in our little horse race, if all the shenanigans of the central banks, governments, and Wall Street Banksters come back to bite us, it could trigger a depression that makes the thirties look like a cakewalk. If we are able to prop the system up long enough, and Peak Oil takes the prize, not only could that trigger the Longest Depression, but it will destabilize the institutions and infrastructure we depend on for daily life.

      This brings us right smack dab to face the third contender in the Trifecta to do in industrial civilization: Anthropogenic Climate Change. If our monetary hijinks are the shadow in the closet , and energy decline is the monster under the bed, then global warming is the dragon in the forest, capable of razing the realm with its infernal breath.

      Let us put it another way. Financial collapse is a black horse. Her rider demands a day's pay for a quart of wheat, a day's pay for three quarts of barley, but damn sure don't spoil the olive oil and the wine! Peak Oil is blood red and its rider wields a great sword. Remember the Carter Doctrine, when the oil begins to run short, you think the nations won't take peace from the earth? But Anthropogenic Climate Change is a pale horse: “And his name who sits upon him is Death, and Hell followed with him.”

      Is that a bit hyperbolic? You be the judge.

      I like to look at this issue through two lenses, logos and myths, sort of a left brain, right brain thought excersize. There are often considered to be two paths to gnosis (knowledge), that of logos (reason, logic, observation) and mythos (storytelling, prophecy, poetry). In my opinion, both are necessary for a complete view.

      First we will examine this through the lens of reason. Let's review What we know so far and while we're at it, let's dispense with the fucking nonsense, shall we? We have known about the greenhouse effect since 1824 when Fourier discovered greenhouse gases such as CO2. This is not new and ambiguous information. In 1958 Charles David Keeling began taking measurements of atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa observatory and we have known for five decades that the concentration of CO2 has been relentlessly increasing.

      Physics, chemistry, geology, and simple arithmetic eliminate natural processes as the source of the carbon. Only the burning of fossil fuels can account for the fact, and it is an irrefutable fact that atmospheric CO2 has increased from 250 parts per million (PPM) at the dawn of the industrial revolution to over 390 PPM in 2012.

      The higher the concentration of CO2, the less solar heat is radiated back out space, and the global average temperature is forced higher.

      “Wait!”, the skeptics say. We weren't measuring CO2 in 1850 (the beginning of the industrial revolution). More fucking nonsense, we can drill ice cores. Much like tree rings, they give scientists a very accurate window into climate history. The tiny air bubbles trapped in each layer of ice, contain samples of that year's atmosphere. Count back 162 layers, send the slice to the lab, and bingo! We know it was 250 PPM in 1850.

      “But solar radiation and the earth's orbit can affect the climate!”, they cry. Again, physics and math tell us that the slow increase over eons in the sun's energy output is not enough to account for the rapid increase in temperature, almost 1C since baseline (1850). And we are in the “long” phase of our orbit, which is a negative (cooling) forcing. Keep in mind that these forcings are tiny and have their impact on a geologic deep timescale. Only the profligate burning of fossil fuels can account for what we have seen and what we are seeing.

      And if you believe that this is all a hoax by a cabal of academics and scientists bent on increasing their grant money, well I've got a job lined out for you at Bell Helicopters building black helicopters for the U.N.
      
     Speaking of geologic timescales, CO2 can and does sometimes increase due to natural phenomena. A good example would be the Siberian Traps an episode of massive volcanic activity thought to have caused a 6C temperature increase and the mass extinction event referred to as the Great Dying. Another example would be the PETM (paleocene-eocene thermal maximum) thought to be the result of a release of methane hydrates from the sea floor. Methane is one hundred times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 over the short term and about 20 times more potent over the long term as it degrades to CO2. Both these events happened over many thousands of years, but we have already seen nearly a 1C increase in 162 years. This is at least an order of magnitude faster than previous warming episodes. Not only should that give you pause, it should drive home the point that only the burning of fossil fuels can account for this. Period!

      The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and various organizations have been sounding the alarm bell repeatedly that we must avoid 2C warming by 2100, in order to stave off risks to civilization. If I have one criticism of the IPCC it is that they have consistently underestimated the impact and the danger. Since the IPCC's report in 2007 (1C warming by 2100) the data and models have been improving and a relentless drumbeat of dire climate assessments have been piling up. Each is worst than the last. Just this year the World Bank forecast 4C by the middle of the century, and they are hardly a left-wing, liberal, environmental organization. The Global Carbon Project and the International Energy Agency forecasts business as usual pushing us to over 6C by 2100. At 6C the oceans are so acidic that they no longer support phytoplankton, the source of half the earth's oxygen. As Lierre Keith puts it: “if the oceans go down, we're going down with them.”

      Another problem I have with the IPCC and other climate groups is the focus on the year 2100. As if we really have 87 years before we have to get worried. It is not about your grandchildren, it is not about your children, it is about you. Here are a few things we have observed in the past few years. You can light the ground on fire in Siberia because melting permafrost is releasing methane, there was a large oyster die off as the baby oysters could not survive in the acidic environment, the Arctic ocean is releasing methane from melting hydrates (remember the PETM), the Arctic ice cap is melting and the North American pine forest is dying, because of drought and an infestation of mountain pine beetles. Each of these (and other phenomena) are self reinforcing (positive) feedback loops.

      Lets take the pine beetles for example. It no longer gets cold enough, for long enough, in the high country to kill off the pine beetles. The forests are stressed due to ongoing drought and the beetles deliver the coup de grace. Warmer winters ensure more beetles are able to overwinter and survive, killing more trees, which sequester less carbon, which makes the winters warmer, which lets more beetles survive, and so on. Or Arctic ice, less summer ice reduces the albedo (reflectivity) of the Arctic, which means more solar radiation (heat) is retained by the dark ocean water, which melts more ice, which reduces the albedo, and so on. It ain't that complicated, can you dig it?

      For crying out loud, we have seen thousands die in the 2003 European heat wave in France, the heat wave in Russia in 2010 was so severe it killed 40% of the Russian wheat crop and sparked massive forest fires (along with 50,000 deaths from smoke inhalation and heat stroke) and the resultant spiking food prices in 2011 triggered the Arab Spring. Superstorm Sandy (yet another “storm of the century”) devastated the Northeast and Occupy ended up feeding FEMA. The 2012 drought sent grain and meat and dairy prices through the roof and it still hasn't broken. The mighty Mississippi, the unstoppable Old Man River dropped to 9 ft at St. Louis and barge traffic was almost suspended. Climate change is upon us, all around us, right here, right now.

      How many warnings do we need?

      And this takes us to the lens of mythos. There are many cultural traditions that provide an insight into mankind's troubles. Hinduism, Buddhism, indigenous philosophy, Wicca, Islam all these and more provide insights. But as I was raised in the mainstream Protestant tradition, I am not really qualified to speak from their point of view.

      This brings us to the role of the prophet. What is a prophet? The word immediately conjures up an image of a crazy man, dressed in skins or rags, bearing a sign which boldly proclaims “Repent! The End is Nigh!” Or perhaps a shaman or mystic, peering into the ether through their tarot cards, scrying the futures of the high and mighty. Neither tells the whole story. The prophet, quite simply, is one who speaks for God. A person who calls humanity to task for their base and cruel actions and challenges them to change their lifestyle. Not only does this include figures such as Amos, Micah, Elijah and so on, it includes Dr. Martin Luther King and Gandhi and Mother Jones. It includes Martin Luther, himself. All these people were acting as prophets, speaking the words of truth to power, great and small.

      In biblical tradition, a prophetic warning often follows two basic patterns: “if – then” and “because – therefore”. If you repent, then you shall be forgiven or because you have sinned, your immortal soul is at risk are two simple examples.

      The story of Joseph and the Coat of Many Colors provides a fine example of the first type of warning. Joseph was the youngest and most favored son of Jacob.. Doted upon by his parents, he was showered with blessings and gifts, the polychromatic robe being the most famous. His brothers, in a rage driven by envy, trick his parents into believing he was killed, and sell the hapless Joseph into slavery in Egypt. Our poor hero eventually finds himself imprisoned in the dungeons of Pharaoh, where his true gifts reach their full potential, the interpretation of dreams.

      Pharaoh is awoken in the middle of the night by a disturbing dream. Seven fat, luxurious cows are feeding in the reeds of the Nile and seven sickly wasted cows come upon them and devour them. Pharaoh is disturbed, but finally manages to fall asleep once again, and promptly descends back into the domain of the nightmare. Seven full stalks of corn (wheat, barley, etc.) are growing when seven stalks of grain, blighted and bare, sprout up after them and they consume the lush crops. Pharaoh awakes again. Later in the day, he confesses his dreams and calls for the magicians and wise men to explain it to him, but they are all mystified. His cup bearer, having seen proof of Joseph’s power, tells Pharaoh to call for Joseph, still languishing in the dungeon, and have his dreams interpreted.

      Joseph tells Pharaoh that his dreams are one and the same. The seven cows and seven stalks of grain are seven years of plenty and the seven sick cows and seven blighted stalks are seven years of famine. The fact that the sick cows and blighted stalks devour the other indicate that the famine will be so severe that the good times will be forgotten in the pangs of want and since the dream was doubled the thing is fixed by God and is imminent.

      Joseph then tells Pharaoh to appoint someone to oversee the harvest and save back 20% of the harvest for seven years against the years of famine. The message is clear and simple. If you heed God's warning and take careful, prudent action now, when times are good, then your people shall be saved when the bad times descend. The entire story of Joseph's journey can be found in Genesis chapters 37-50 and the episode of Pharaoh’s dreams are spelled out in chapters 40-41. We would do well to reflect on the message, if we listen to the warnings, sacrifice and take thoughtful prudent action now (while we are able), then when the hard times come, we will make it through.

      At the other end of the spectrum of prophetic warning, we find” because – therefore”. The Book of Jeremiah is the quintessential example of this sort of warning. I think a thoughtful person, regardless of their personal spiritual beliefs (or lack of them) would be well advised to read Jeremiah and ask, what does this mean for us, in this time, right now? Jeremiah may be a prophet who can speak to this age just as powerfully as he spoke to the Hebrews of the Exile.

      “The word of the Lord came to me a second time, saying, 'What do you see?' And I said, 'I see a boiling pot, tilted away from the north.' Then the Lord said to me: Out of the north disaster shall break on all the inhabitants of the land. For now I am calling all the tribes of the kingdoms of the north, says the Lord; and they shall come and all of them shall set their thrones against all the cities of Judah. And I will utter my judgments against them for all their wickedness in forsaking me; they have made offerings to other gods, and worshiped the works of their own hands.” -Jer. 1:11-16

      “Like a cage full of birds, their houses are full of treachery; therefore they have become great and rich. They have grown fat and sleek. They know no limits in deeds of wickedness; they do not judge with justice the cause of the orphan, to make it prosper, and they do not defend the rights of the needy. Shall I not punish them for these things? says the Lord and shall I not bring retribution on a nation such as this?” -Jer. 5:27-29

      Remind you of anyone much?

      In a nutshell, Jeremiah says that because they have engaged in idolatry, glorified their own technological wizardry, and betrayed their sacred obligation to their neighbors, they shall be chastised and their nation destroyed.

      So, again I ask, how many more warnings do we need? Ever since Rachel Carson wrote “Silent Spring” in 1962, there have been a series of environmental prophets who have told us that an unrestrained industrial economy was not compatible with a living planet or civilization. Paul Erlich, Lester Brown, The Club of Rome (Limits to Growth), Bill McKibben, James Hansen, Paul Gilding, and yes even the much-maligned Al Gore, to name a few, have all told us that our industrial lifestyle is unsustainable and is damaging they very thing we depend on for life itself, the biosphere. They have not advocated going back to a medieval, peasant economy. They just said we must slow down, transition, bend the curves. If we get off fossil fuels, then civilization will continue. But in recent years the warnings have taken on a more strident tone, as no substantial action whatsoever has been forthcoming. You can almost see the panic in the eyes of the climatologists.

      Recently, two more major figures have broken with the majority message of “if-then” and shifted to “because-therefore”. Guy McPherson, a conservation biologist and Professor Emeritus at the University of Arizona believes that we may have crossed the event horizon. The climate crisis is now accelerating due to positive feedbacks. The governments and and populations of the world are paralyzed by economic lock-in and cognitive dissonance (they literally cannot imagine living in a different society). Runaway greenhouse and near term human extinction, is in his view, a distinct possibility This is the worst-case scenario described in fictionalized form by James Hansen at the end of his book “Storms of my Grandchildren”. One of Dr. McPherson's presentations can be found here.

      Kevin Anderson, of the Tyndale Center in the UK, skewers the grand plans of the mainstream climate negotiators and scientists in his presentation “Real Clothes for the Emperor”. It can be found here. He points out that all the major programs designed to avoid 2C warming are predicated on CO2 emissions peaking in 2015, two years hence, and then declining at approximately 3.5% per year, year on year. Yet when compared with the actual data on emissions, and constrained by the demands of neo-classical economists for continued economic growth, a startling picture emerges. We have already blown the carbon budget for staying under the ceiling of 2C. In other words, we cannot maintain our economy and avoid 2C. In fact, we will be hard pressed to stay under 4C. And the consequences of 4C mean the end of civilization. The real sting of his presentation is the phrase that a 4C world “may not be stable”. Translation: runaway greenhouse and mass extinction.

      Both men are saying, because society failed to act early and failed to imagine a different economy (as opposed to consumerist suburbia in perpetuity), a gentle transition, putting on sweaters and installing solar water heaters, letting the “markets” work, well that possibility has been foreclosed upon.

      Keep in mind, we have done nothing consequential on the climate front. Japan, one of the most efficient, cohesive, and socially progressive countries on earth missed its emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. If they can't do it, who can? The U.S., killed Kyoto by Senate Filibuster, Dubbya declared that the American lifestyle was non-negotiable, and Obama threw the Copenhagen Accords under the bus, deciding that health reform and the economy were more important. He did raise the auto emission standards to placate the environmentalists leading up to the 2012 election, but this is like a clown tossing candy to a child on the parade route. It is as if we are leaning out of the airplane, pissing on a forest fire.

      Does anyone, anywhere realistically think carbon emissions will peak in 2015? And as Mr. Anderson points out, the longer the emissions peak is delayed, the steeper the fall must be in order to avoid 2C. The last country that was able to reduce CO2 by 5% a year was the USSR when that nation disintegrated and their economy collapsed.

      And if we continue on our current trajectory, and more extreme weather becomes the norm, how shall we eat? Agriculture is predicated on the predictable weather patterns of the Holocene, not the crapshoot of the Anthropocene.

      'Tis quite a quandary we've created for ourselves, isn't it. We squandered the one thing we couldn't afford to lose, time. Normally, an essay of this sort, would offer a series of possible solutions, of actions we could take to “fix” the problem. But I believe we may have left the era of choice and entered the era of consequence. If we are very, very lucky, it will be a choice of consequences. Behind door number one: the end of the globalized industrial economy and perhaps the continuation of human beings and a living planet on which to reside. Behind door number two: continuing our delusion for a time yet, and then the Sixth Mass Extinction.

      So, the obvious question, is what are we to do? Honestly, I don't know. But there are some paths forward. One path: Resistance. The good news is that the Fellowship is recruiting. More on that next time.